Two days before the start of the 2018 World Cup in Russia is a perfect time to join all the Soccer pundits, mavens and soothsayers be they amatures like myself or professional soccer journalists and make some predictions. Please do not challenge my credentials before you consider those “experts” who predicted that Hillary Clinton was a shoe-in to become the first female president of the United States, that the YES vote in the Brexit referendum is a no-brainer outcome and that the NDP could form a majority government in Ontario.
Let’s begin with the pre-tournament FIFA Ranking of the TOP 10 qualifying teams with the best chance to win the World Cup.
The World Cup kicks off on Thursday as host Russia takes on Saudi Arabia, and the other 30 teams will play their first match in the following days as they battle for the right to be crowned champions of the world. But how do all 32 teams stack up before the cup officially begins? Here’s our latest installment of World Cup 2018 power rankings:
1.Brazil — The Brazilians got Neymar back, and he’s already looks awesome. This team is still the favorite to hoist the trophy when it’s all said and done. Losing Dani Alves to injury hurts, but Tite’s men have enough to take home a sixth title.
2.Germany — Lost to Austria in a friendly but fielded a different, young lineup. Created lots of chances in the win against Saudi Arabia and has all the pieces. Timo Werner is the real deal up top.
3.Spain — Some concerns in attack in the matches following the blowout of Argentina. Who starts up top? Is it Diego Costa, Rodrigo or Iago Aspas? Should still make semifinals.
4.France — A 1-1 draw against a youthful USA squad was ugly and doesn’t provide a good vibe going into Russia. It was an inexperienced team that struggled to finish. Better to miss those chances now.
5.Uruguay — A real threat to win it all. This team is loaded at the back and up top, but it is the young midfield that will be key. This team will escape its group, and if it can get the right matchups, look out.
6.Belgium — Belgium has scored three goals in four out of the last five matches. That’s the scoring touch we need to see to be convinced this team can make a deep run. Hitting the back of the net often and at the right time.
7.Portugal — With Cristiano Ronaldo pretty well rested, it’s a good sign to see others like Andre Silva and Goncalo Guedes perform well. But can fielding this past-their-prime defenders help Portugal to reach the final? It’s a massive question mark. Pepe and Bruno Alves are on the team, and this isn’t 2010.
8.Argentina — It feels like this team will make the final or crash out in the round of 16. Lionel Messi is going to need some help. Cristian Pavon has clicked well with him, but Paulo Dybala needs a bigger role. Jorge Sampaoli has a lot to figure out.
9.England — I’m liking this team more and more. Harry Kane is a superstar, but the defense has to be near perfect. John Stones may be more of a liability.
10.Croatia — From the midfield to the top, this team is incredibly talented, but at times the guys don’t click. Ivan Perisic and Mario Mandzukic must be on the same page for this team to do damage.
My first prediction (too easy) is that if none of the teams above win the World Cup I will eat this article for breakfast the morning after the World Cup Final. So, to not keep you in suspense I can see Lionel Messi hoisting the World Cup on July 15, 2018 in a tight final beating Brazil 2:1. I bet you can not say that this is not plausible.
My prediction is that the Round of 16 will include the following matches as you can see leading up to the Final.
Now it is your turn to create your own bracket on the FIFA web:
https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/take-the-fifa-world-cup-bracket-challenge
To help you with this task, my predictive contribution will be to rank the top 10 teams that will go through to the Round of 16 based on an individual player quality ranking on a scale of 1-10 yielding an aggregate Team Quality Factor (“TQF”). While the starting line-ups of the teams have not been announced I would announce them myself on a strictly subjective basis with no guarantees. As Soccer is the ultimate team sport individual player quality ranking in aggregate may not be the best predictor but the same can be said for all other pre-tournament predictions. Here are my TQF ranking with some caveats to aid you in completing your bracket (some surprises compared to FIFA Power Ranking)
Spain (92)
Pound for pound the best on paper: Best Goalie DeGea, Rock solid Defense: Ramos, Pique, Brilliant Mid-Field: Iniesta, Thiago Silva, Isco. Good but not great upfront Diego Costa and David Silva
Germany: (88)
Solid Defense with Neuer in goal, Hummels, Boatang, Kimmich defending, Probably best mid-field with Ozil, Kroos and Muller just as Spain not that great upfront Gomez and…
Brazil: (86) Surprised myself that they are not on top the TQF ranking but probably most balanced. Better than average defense headed by Marcelo and Danilo, Fast-paced brilliant mid-field with Coutinho, Paulinho and Willian and the most explosive forward line with Jesus, Firmino and of course the likely Golden Boot winner Neymar Jr.
France: (86)
Tied with Brazil on TQF Average in goal with Lorris. Decent defense with Umtidi and Varne, but dominating in mid-field with Pogba, Kante and Matuidi. Awesome front line led by the brilliant in form Griezman and Mbappe aided by the head of Giroud.
Argentina: (85)
So, so in goal. Good Defence with Macherano and Otamendi. Attacking mid-field with Di Maria and of course the most explosive front line with the king himself Leo Messi Dybala and Higuain.
England: (85)
Surprised myself that England is tied Argentina and Belgium on TQF ranking. Goaltending may be a weak link with Butland or any other but Rose and Cahil on defense flanked by Walker and Young as wing backs if so instructed could make a difference. Probably too dependent on Deli Ali in mid-field but a menacing front line led by Kane with sterling and Rushford on the wings adding speed and aggression.
Belgium: (85)
Could be the surprise of the tournament. Solid in every position from goal with Courtois, Kompany and Vertonghen on defense and potentially the MVP of the tournament the brilliant De Bruyne running the plays from mid-field with Hazard and Lukaku scoring upfront. Wow.
Uruguay: (84)
Scoring high mainly on the strength of Suarez and Cavani upfront.This team seems to have it together as a team and in a World Cup tournament this can be more important than individual performances,
Portugal: (83)
Surprisingly low in the top 10 on TQF but with Ronaldo leading the line could threaten any of the top 10. I have them dropping at the Round of 16 to Uruguay but with less than average confidence. Just as Uruguay, seem to be performing well as a team.
Switzerland: (81)
Here is a team that over achieves its TQF and producing results. No stellar player other than Shakiri but above average in all other positions.
There you have it. You are now ready to try your hand in prognosticating the World Cup by going to:
https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/take-the-fifa-world-cup-bracket-challenge
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If you would like to audit or critique my (Footie-Fanatic) TQF starting lineups by team as well as the individual player Quality Rank you’ll find them below
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